The statistican and the power in Moldova speak and show a miscellaneous, at least in the field of economy. From January 2012 till October 2012 (9 months) growth in economy of Moldova the negative. In the government say, that crisis and a drought is guilty, but as a result all is good. Experts consider, that the real course of reforms brakes. Thus - figures, dates, names...
The total report of the government on economic achievements of the leaving year, presented this week prime minister Vladimir Filatom, has turned out rather optimistical. According to the report, gross national product of Moldova grows (following the results of three years of th 14 %), indicators in the international ratings improve (in Doing Bisness ÐÌ has risen with 93rd on 87 place), direct investments increase (on $54 million), raises the average salary (on 6 %), grows employment, decreases unemployment (on 0,5 %). The foreign trade balance still negative, is marked in the report, but, and export and import, despite financial and economic crisis in Europe and an unprecedented drought every year decreases, too in plus - growth for 10 months economy of Moldova it has shown negative growth (-0,2 % has made 0,1 % and 1,7 % accordingly. At the same time in the report it was not mentioned that following the results of nine months). According to the vice-premier, Minister of Economics Valery Lazera, by the end of this year the economy can show both falling, and growth - within 0,5 % in both parties from zero. Forecasts on gross national product growth in 2012 repeatedly changed within a year as the government, and external partners - from 3,5-4 % in the beginning of year to 0,2-0,3 % in the autumn. Disputes were caused also by the level of gross national product which have been put in pawn in the budget for 2013 (-5 %). The main document of the country on the basis of unreal macroparameters has been accepted by parliament quickly, despite criticism of opposition and experts. For example, the doctor of economy Elena Gorelov is assured, that this year the economy will register recession on 0,6-1 %, and in 2013 growth in 5 % we in any way will not achieve, therefore the budget the next year still will be repeatedly reconsidered. Besides, on the macroeconomic parametres put in pawn in the budget there were disputes between the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economics which has lowered the forecasts, but they were considered by the Ministry of Finance, transferring the budget project in parliament. If to speak about financial indicators for this year - inflations, an external state debt, depozitno-credit volumes from the point of view of statistics here all is more or less stable. According to Natsbank, level of base inflation by the end of year will make 3,6 %, not having exceeded the planned level in 5 %. The balance of deposits has grown on 14 %, and credits - on 9 % (in Moldavian ëåÿõ). However loans in a foreign currency it is given out on 21 % less. The size of an external debt of Moldova following the results of nine months has reached more than $5 ìëðä, from which $1,1 ìëðä (36 % from gross national product) guaranteed by the state, that, according to the authorities, are quite entered in the best Central European indicators. At the same time, according to the European bank of reconstruction and development (European Reconstruction and Development Bank), not all was smooth in bank sector of Moldova. In the beginning of year it was closed Universalbank. At the majority of the Moldavian banks, according to experts of the European Reconstruction and Development Bank, within a year deterioration of a credit portfolio, especially at state Banca de Economii was observed. Problems of this bank have guarded even IMF, the next which estimated mission has visited republic in November of this year. The fund has recommended to Natsbank urgently to develop the plan on conclusion Banca de Economii from a crisis condition. Proceeded this year and attempts ðåéäåðñêèõ attacks to banks. Last object of attack, according to the government, was Moldova Agroindbank. Expanding powers ÍÁÌ under the control over activity of banks have attended to a situation Natsbank (ÍÁÌ) and the Ministry of Finance therefore amendments have been made to laws on financial institutions and the Natsbank, and forbidding to the offshore companies to participate in the banking capital. The beginning of struggle against a power offshore have proclaimed in August of 2012 when the prime minister has urged the government to solve a problem with the overestimated prices for mineral oil, to discharge the offshore companies of the conclusion of transactions with state enterprises etc. But before realisation of requirements of the prime minister business has not reached yet. As experts consider, the report of the prime minister - quite in the spirit of the present authorities: to present «success history», having lowered problems and troubles. According to the doctor of economy of Tatyana Larjushinoj, it speaks about a growing precipice between the power and a society. « The country leaders inadequately estimate an event, trying to observe external decency and stable macroeconomic indicators and as inadequately reacts to signals of citizens and business. Therefore the trust both that, and others to the power slides downwards », - has underlined the expert. The investment overflow that íåäîïîíèìàíèå grows, speaks and investment climate which has sharply worsened in this year in the country. According to Íàöáþðî statisticans, for nine months 2012 of the investment into a fixed capital of the foreign enterprises have made 612,2 million ëååâ ($49,4 million), having reduced in comparison with the similar period of last year on 32,4 % and having made 7,4 % from total amount of investments. Simultaneously with falling of volume of investments growth of outflow of the capital from Moldova is observed. For the first half of the year (data for nine months while are not present) it has been taken out for limits of the country of $81,3 million, that on 19,2 % it is more in comparison with last year. In November, we will remind, loud investment scandal when large German investor Draexlmaier, not consent with certificates of tax checks and the imposed sum of penalties, has brought an action against Tax service has inflamed. After Draexlmaier the claims to tax specialists, and also customs officers have declared American company Lear Corporation and Australian Shan Lian International Group SRL. These two services - tax and customs - the vice-premier, Minister of Economics Valery Lazer named «culprits of all troubles of business». As he said, investors need to be protected «as an eye pupil» whereas a management of tax and customs services see in them «milk cows or criminals». Testifies to it and growth of volumes of collected penalties, including this year. The volume of penalties has grown, admitted tax inspection, having refused, however, to name exact figures. This year there were some new types of tax (the three-percent tax from a turn, a road vignette), have increased old, there was a disputable mechanism of an indirect estimation of incomes «many earning citizens». It has led to that the shadow economy share in gross national product structure has increased - in 2012 this indicator has made more than third, having increased officially only for last year on 3 %. At the same time the quantity of openly registered enterprises for 11 months of this year has decreased for 6 %. From positive experts have noted acceptance (under the pressure of external partners) two important laws - about a competition and about the state help, first of which has come into force in September of this year, and the second will start to be applied in August of 2013. Trade external From the most appreciable events in the foreign trade sphere of Moldova it is necessary to note the beginning of negotiations about creation of a zone of free trade with the European Union (DCFTA), and also signing and ratification of the contract on free trade with the CIS countries. According to experts, at all advantage of both agreements the first for the Moldavian manufacturers not so unequivocally as assumes gradual cancellation of the customs duties and, accordingly, a sharp competition between the domestic and European goods. The situation with export of the Moldavian goods to this year was astable. For example, in February of Ministry of Economics planned for 10 % to increase export of goods at the expense of elimination of tariff and not tariff barriers in foreign trade. By a recognition of the head of department Valery Lazera, results in this area - a zero, and the reason - resistance of some state bodies, Especially customs service, and also the establishments subordinated to the Ministry of Agriculture. Ýíåðãîïàêåòîì on gas In power sphere this year there were some important events. It was not possible to Moldova to achieve the comprehensible price for deliveries of the electric power from Ukraine in any way and ÌîëäÃÐÝÑ (both those, and others insisted on 20 percent increase) in the spring. As a result only in the tenth of April (though old contracts on delivery operated till April, 1st) Kishinev managed to bring down the price for 6,9 %-to 6,9 cents for kw-h (earlier-6,1 cent). The price for the end user has as a result grown also. The government of Romania has confirmed the feasibility report (FEASIBILITY REPORT) of the investment civil-engineering design of main gas pipeline Jassy-Ungeny for âçàèìîïîäêëþ÷åíèÿ with gas-transport system of Moldova. The Prime minister of Romania Victor Ponta has declared, that it is a question of realisation of the strategic project for Kishinev and Bucharest which was discussed by the parties already long period of time, but and has not been realised. But the most sad event of year and experts, and representatives of the power named that Moldova has not managed to achieve signing of the long-term contract on delivery of the Russian gas, having prolonged only old contract for a year. The third power package which Moldova was obliged before EU to introduce till the end of 2015, assuming division of gas branch into deliveries, transport and distribution became a stumbling-block. It was not pleasant to "Gazprom", and, being afraid for the investments, he has declared, that Moldova should refuse it ýíåðãîïàêåòà. As a result the republic has achieved a delay on it èìïëåìåíòàöèè till 2020, and also has begun negotiations with Moscow under the intergovernmental agreement in the field of power. According to the expert in the field of power of Ion Ìóíòÿíà, the republic did not need to make concessions to "Gazprom" and to ask EU about an introduction delay ýíåðãîïàêåòà, thereby having shown full dependence on the Russian supplier of blue fuel. Speaking about economic results of the year, some analysts consider, that «could be even worse». According to financial expert Vladimir Golovatjuka, «the full collapse in economy and social sphere has not occurred thanking not to efforts of the power, and money Moldavian ãàñòàðáàéòåðîâ, supporting consumption (so also a certain similarity of economic development) in republic» (the volume of remittances to Moldova from labour migrants makes, according to the World bank, 23 % of gross national product of the country). The doctor of economy Tatyana Larjushina has noticed, that the authorities «íàïðèäóìûâàëè various strategy, have confirmed good laws, having laid down thus rather arrogant aims, however realisation and practical application of necessary reforms lags behind at least years on five».
Natalia Melnik, on materials of the newspaper the businessman.