The next, quarterly report of National Bank was submitted by the acting president of National bank Doreen Dregutsana. In total as usual: a situation in the banking sector, macroeconomic indicators, inflation indicators, evolution of interest rates, petrol prices, gas, etc. Even told about mission of the International Monetary Fund. And still - tsey chapter of the report was devoted to Russia. There everything badly and will be even worse. Both laughter and sin. Generally read the report of agency "Infotag". It seems to me that there everything is.
Declared to Dregutsan that the indicator of the average inflation in 2016 predicts the regulator of the market at the level of 10,1%, in comparison with 13,6% in 2015.
"We predict that in 2017 the rate of inflation will enter the corridor targetted by NBM when its average annual indicator makes 6,6%", - told Dregutsan, having reminded about a strategic objective of the regulator - to have inflation within 5%, plus or minus 1,5%.
Telling about evolution of a consumer price index last year, the president of NBM noted that "the peak of increase in prices fell on the fourth quarter 2015.
"We expect that in the forthcoming months insignificant falling of a rhythm of increase in prices which will allow to reach only in the third quarter 2017 the pursued purpose NBM" will be observed, - he noticed.
Dregutsana paid attention that the average annual indicator of a rate of inflation in RM from 2010 to 2015 made 6,5% that is much lower than a similar indicator in 2000-2009.
On a consumer price index in 2015 "pressed" some factors, but the drought and depreciation of national currency were most essential. Because of devaluation of Moldovan leu it wasn't succeeded "to squeeze out a maximum" of the falling world prices for energy resources, in particular, on oil products and natural gas.
The interest rate for the credits in 2015 grew much more slowly than a rate of refinancing of NBM. Reminded Dregutsan that the average rate on the credits in banks increased only by 4,6%.
"The basic rate grew by 16%, and the credits - for 4,6% taking into account that the inflation indicator in 2015 jumped up for 9%", - told Dregutsan.
The head of NBM told that for the last year the indicator of money in circulation was reduced by 10% that is quite natural in a situation of delay of growth of economy.
"This circumstance was considered by us in monetary policy. When the economy stays in a condition of recession, it doesn't need big money. The population bears money in banks, and those send them to NBM. And it serves as the indicative indicator that the economy is ill. But as soon as there will be first symptoms of her recovery, the market will feel on itself increase in money in circulation. It will also be for all a signal of growth of economy", - the banker explained.
To Dregutsan disagreed with those experts who consider that the reason of high interest rates for the credits is covered in a "rigid" monetary policy of NBM.
"Who follows the credits in banks if goods or service aren't on sale?", - I asked a question to Dregutsan, having noticed that "priming of economy by the credits from banks during its recession or stagnation is fraught with creation of problems to banks in the future".
Recognized Dregutsana that in 2015 the banking system passed through shock of which earlier never I worried.
"Now in a banking system we observe growth of depositors in Moldovan lei that testifies to trust of the population to banks. Yes, we aren't satisfied with rates of this growth, but that was in the middle of 2015, everything is good", - considers Dregutsana.
About depositary and mission of the IMF
Head of NBM Uwe